However, inside the red zone is where Gronkowski definitely will be missed.

Gronkowski is almost unstoppable in the red zone. His size, long wingspan and strong hands made him an ideal target for Patriots quarterback Tom Brady to spot in the end zone. Gronkowski caught 38 touchdowns in three seasons, and a majority of his scores were inside the 20-yard line. He caught 11 touchdowns in 11 regular-season games in 2012 despite being in and out of the lineup.

The Patriots will be fine between the 20s. Aaron Hernandez can stretch the field at tight end. Wes Welker can get open over the middle and move the chains. And other Patriots like receiver Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch and tailbacks Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley will pick up the slack.

But the Patriots cannot afford to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns this deep in the playoffs. Outside of Gronkowski, no other Patriot caught more than six touchdown passes this season.

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Houston at New England
When: 4:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 13, 2013
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Line: Patriots -10, O/U 47.5

Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 9½-point favorites versus the Texans, while the game’s total is sitting at 48.

Arian Foster scored the game’s lone touchdown last week and compiled 174 total yards from scrimmage (140 rushing, 34 receiving). Foster’s dual threat was rendered nearly obsolete after the Patriots breezed to an early 21-0 lead. The electric runner was held to 46 yards on the ground. Houston would be wise to feed Foster the ball on Sunday; the Texans are 8-0 when he rushes for at least 100 yards.

Last time out for Houston, they were a 19-13 winner as they battled the Bengals at home. The Texans covered in the match as a 3.5-point favorite, while 32 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Houston: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
When playing in January are 4-4
When playing on turf are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Brady isn’t shy about distributing the ball as he guides the league’s highest-scoring team. Wes Welker, who had 118 catches for 1,354 yards this season, was held to just three receptions in the teams’ earlier meeting. Rob Gronkowski, who was a spectator against the Texans earlier this season, led the Patriots with 11 touchdowns. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez, who had two scores versus Houston, and wideout Brandon Lloyd could be the wild cards in the high-octane attack.

New England won its last outing, a 28-0 result against the Dolphins on December 30. The Patriots covered in that game as a 11.5-point favorite, while the 28 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

New England: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England’s last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England’s last 14 games

Prediction: Patriots 31, Texans 20

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