In many leagues, a victory this week will earn you a berth in the championship game. So stay the course that took you this far in most cases, and remember that all you can do is be informed and set the most ideal lineup possible. Once the games start, it’s on your players to execute.

The best you can do is put yourself in position to win without obsessing about what you can’t control – winning when it counts takes luck in addition to the efforts you’ve already put in.

QUARTERBACK DECISIONS

Quarterback decisions this week are not easy. Drew Brees has thrown no touchdown passes and six interceptions in his past two games. Ben Roethlisberger is on the road again, where he has eight TD passes and eight interceptions. Andrew Luck has a tough matchup at Minnesota. It’s not crazy to use Joe Flacco over any of those three. Flacco has two 300-yard games and six TD passes in his past two games. He faces an Eagles defense that has yielded 31.08 fantasy points per game to QBs over the past four weeks, fourth-highest in the NFL during that span. In most cases, you do not bench your star players at this time of year. But you can make an exception here with Flacco.

Tom Brady also appears to have a very tough matchup against the Broncos, but he should not be reserved like Brees or Roethlisberger, who have some negative trends working against them. Brady came up big in what looked to be a difficult matchup against Baltimore last week, throwing for more than 400 yards and three touchdowns. He’ll move the offense well enough to deliver at least respectable fantasy totals this week. This is a marquee matchup for Brady, and he will be prepared to deliver. Denver also has some key injuries at linebacker that could make the Broncos more vulnerable to passes to Patriots running backs and tight ends.

JEFFERY’S RETURN

The Bears get Alshon Jeffery back from a suspension this week, and you should re-insert him in your lineup at least as a third wide receiver or flex option. Matt Barkley has thrown frequently in two of his three starts and has not made the Bears’ receivers as irrelevant as feared when he first took over as the starter. Of course, do keep an eye on the weather, as windy conditions could hurt Chicago’s passing game.

SPEAKING OF WEATHER

Don’t get panicky at the first sign of snow or other weather reports. If there is only light snow or the winds are not heavy, you should not make a hasty move to adjust your lineup. Snowy conditions can play to the advantage of the offense, as defenders might have trouble getting into position when reacting to a playmaker who may be running a predetermined route or forcing a defender to react to him with a juke or cut. If you see winds below 15 mph or so, don’t expect too much of an adverse effect on the passing game.

GORDON OUT, FARROW IN

Melvin Gordon is out with a hip injury, and undrafted rookie Kenneth Farrow should be the lead runner for the Chargers in what could be a high-scoring affair with the Raiders. Farrow is a physical type who should get some goal-line chances, so roll him out as the second running back in your lineup or at a flex spot. Ronnie Hillman may get some reps, too, but Farrow is the guy you want to use, especially if you lost Gordon.

JULIO JONES

Julio Jones is looking very iffy again this week, but Matt Ryan and the Falcons may not even need him against the likes of the 49ers. Plan to be without Jones again, but Ryan has other fantasy-friendly weapons at his disposal. The Niners allow 26.58 FFPG to wide receivers, so lock in big-play man Taylor Gabriel, and you can even consider Justin Hardy, who scored last week, in deeper leagues. Tevin Coleman can play a significant role as both a runner and receiver, and he is a terrific option as your second running back or flex option.

TANNEHILL OUT, MOORE IN

All may not be lost for the Dolphins’ offense without Ryan Tannehill. Matt Moore does not throw high-percentage passes as well as Tannehill, but he does throw downfield. Moore can make a big play, but then throw a head-scratcher of a pass. In 2011, Moore started a dozen games for Miami. In five games, he threw passes of 40-plus yards, and he threw a 30-plus yarder in eight. He had three games with three TD passes. But he was erratic and failed to throw more than one TD pass in eight starts. Moore is unreliable, but won’t totally bog down the offense, and DeVante Parker should still have playmaking promise. Moore could also be a bit less shaky with Jarvis Landry as a target for him now. Don’t expect the Miami offense to fall apart. Jay Ajayi should still get some chances to finish off scoring drives with TD runs.

—

This column was provided to The Associated Press by the Fantasy Sports Network, http://FNTSY.com

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And just like that, Drew Brees and the suddenly resurgent New Orleans Saints have first place in the NFC South division within their immediate grasp.

Brees completed 27 of 32 passes for 311 yards and three touchdowns, New Orleans’ defense produced big plays in the clutch and the Saints ended the Green Bay Packers’ four-game winning streak, 44-23 on Sunday night.

“It’s been a long time coming,” Brees said. “Obviously, we’ve had our fair share of struggles early on here. We’ve lost some heart-breakers. All we talked about all week long is just coming together as a team and playing a complete game as a team. … It was a perfect representation of that.”

Rookie receiver Brandin Cooks had a 50-yard touchdown catch and a 4-yard scoring run, and tight end Jimmy Graham caught a touchdown pass. The Saints (3-4) pulled even in victories with Carolina (3-4-1), setting up a Thursday night showdown for first place in the NFC South.

Aaron Rodgers, intercepted only once in Green Bay’s first seven games, was picked off twice on tipped passes and sacked three times. He still passed for 418 yards, including a 70-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb, but it was not nearly enough to prevent the Packers (5-3) from falling a game behind NFC North leader Detroit.

Rodgers, who also complained of a sore hamstring, called the Packers’ performance “uncharacteristic of our team and myself.”

“Just taking points off the board is tough. We had chances,” Rodgers said, lamenting three promising first half drives that ended in field goals. “We would have had to score 45 to win tonight and we could have if we had done a better job taking care of the football and scoring in the red zone with touchdowns.”

Packers coach Mike McCarthy said he kept Rodgers in the shot gun formation to help him play through his sore hamstring and thought Rodgers “was smart” in avoiding exposure to further injury. McCarthy also dismissed the idea that the raucous environment in the Superdome, where the Saints are unbeaten since 2012, was an over-riding factor.

“I don’t think a whole lot of defense was played here tonight, but they got turnovers,” McCarthy said.

Saints coach Sean Payton wasn’t complaining about the 491 net yards his defense gave up, given the big plays the unit produced.

“That’s one of the best offenses in the league,” Payton said about Green Bay. “That was a good team win in all areas.”

Except perhaps in the punting game — because there were no punt by either team, marking only the third time that’s happened in NFL history. It has now happened twice this season, both times involving Green Bay, starting with the Packers’ 38-17 victory over Chicago on Sept. 28.

Cameron Jordan had two sacks for New Orleans, one which forced a field goal in the first half. Kasim Edebali also had two sacks for New Orleans, his second on reserve QB Matt Flynn, who was in for mop-up duty and fumbled on the play.

Brees completed all 11 of his passes in the second half, including a 2-yard touchdown pass to tight end Josh Hill, as the Saints improved to 3-0 at home this season. It also marked New Orleans’ 14th straight victory in a night game in the Superdome. Most of those games weren’t close, and the latest one followed suit.

Green Bay was without two starting defensive backs: cornerback Sam Shields and safety Morgan Burnett. Compounding matters for the Packers’ defense was the strong running of Mark Ingram, which only made Brees’ play-action fakes more effective. Carrying a heavy load in the absence of injured running backs Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, Ingram had 24 carries for a career-high 172 yards and a touchdown.

“Mark had a fantastic game. I thought we had good balance. Credit the offensive line,” Payton said. “The balance helped us tonight because we got some advantageous looks with heavy play-action shots downfield out of some run looks.”

Those included a 45-yard completion to Kenny Stills, which set up Cooks’ first TD.

Packers running back Eddie Lacy, who grew up in the New Orleans area, had 181 yards from scrimmage — including 123 yards on eight catches — but was stopped on fourth-and-short in the third quarter. Soon after, Graham scored his first touchdown since injuring his shoulder in Week 5, giving New Orleans a two-score lead.

The Saints’ first interception came when the Packers were in range of a go-head score early in the third quarter. Cornerback Corey White tipped a pass intended for Andrew Quarless near the goal line and linebacker David Hawthorne caught it. That led to Cooks’ second TD, which gave the Saints the lead for good.

Payton set up New Orleans’ fourth-down stop by challenging the spot of a reception near the first-down marker. Initially ruled a first down, the spot was moved back a yard, then Hawthorne and defensive tackle Tyrunn Walker stuffed Lacy.

White made New Orleans’ second interception in the fourth quarter.

Game notes

Green Bay’s Mason Crosby and New Orleans’ Shayne Graham each kicked three field goals in the first half, after which the score was tied at 16.

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The Baltimore Sun reported talks went fine between Flacco’s agent, Joe Litna, and Ravens vice president of football administration Pat Moriarty. Talks are expected to continue as both sides try to hammer out a deal before the March 4 deadline that teams have to use their franchise tag. If no deal is reached, Flacco is expected to be tagged.

Earlier this month, Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said he is optimistic that the team will get a long-term deal done with the quarterback. Flacco is not under contract for the coming season. The franchise tag, which would take the 28-year-old Flacco off the free-agent market, would take $20 million of cap space this season.

Newsome said Feb. 7 that the sides were close to a deal before the season began, but it was a mutual agreement to stop negotiations until the end of the season.

Flacco, who made less than $7 million last season, is expected to become one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks. Drew Brees, at an average of $20 million per season, and Peyton Manning, who made $18 million last season, currently top the pay scale for quarterbacks.

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The Ravens and Flacco’s agent, Joe Linta, had been trading telephone calls in recent days to try to schedule the face-to-face negotiating session. Both sides will try to hammer out a deal before the March 4 deadline that teams have to use their franchise tag. If no deal is reached, Flacco is expected to be tagged.

Earlier this month, Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome said he is optimistic that the team will get a long-term deal done with the quarterback. Flacco is not under contract for the coming season. The franchise tag, which would take the 28-year-old Flacco off the free-agent market, would take $20 million of cap space this season.

Newsome said Feb. 7 that the sides were close to a deal before the season began, but it was a mutual agreement to stop negotiations until the end of the season.

Flacco, who made less than $7 million last season, is expected to become one of the NFL’s highest-paid quarterbacks. Drew Brees, at an average of $20 million per season, and Peyton Manning, who made $18 million last season, currently top the pay scale for quarterbacks.

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The New Orleans Saints said Saturday they had hired the former Dallas Cowboys assistant coach as their new defensive coordinator, hoping he can help overhaul a unit that was historically bad last season.

“We have experience in preparing and playing against his defenses and they’ve always been challenging in terms of the different looks and pressures that they feature,” Saints coach Sean Payton said when Ryan’s hiring was announced Saturday, one day after he interviewed for the job. “We’ve had the chance to visit with each other and talk about our visions for our team and I’m excited about moving forward as we prepare for the 2013 season.”

Veteran NFL coach and former Buffalo Bills assistant Stan Kwan was also added as the Saints’ special teams coach. Kwan has been an NFL assistant 23 years, the past three in Buffalo.

“Stan is a veteran coach that understands all nuances of the special teams game,” Payton said. “He has a wealth of knowledge and I believe he will be a good fit.”

Ryan was fired from the same position with the Cowboys on Jan. 8, soon after owner Jerry Jones said he would make major changes to a team that finished 8-8 and missed the playoffs.

Ryan, after his ouster in Dallas, said,”I’ll be out of work for like five minutes.”

In 2010, Ryan was Cleveland’s defensive coordinator when the Browns beat the Saints in the Superdome 30-17, intercepting passes by Drew Brees four times. One of those interceptions was made by linebacker Scott Fujita, who had been a captain of New Orleans’ defense a season earlier and had helped Ryan prepare and execute the game plan against the Saints.

Just days after returning from his season-long suspension in connection with the NFL’s investigation of the Saints’ cash-for-hits bounty program, Payton fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and said he would switch New Orleans’ defensive scheme from a 4-3 alignment (four down linemen, three linebackers) to a 3-4. The Saints yielded 7,042 yards last season, the worst single-season total in NFL history.

Ryan has run 3-4 schemes for years. He worked as a linebacker coach in such defenses in New England, where he was part of two Super Bowl-winning teams. He then spent five seasons as defensive coordinator in Oakland (2004-2008), followed by two seasons in Cleveland before moving to Dallas in 2011.

Now the 50-year-old Ryan takes his fourth defensive coordinator job since 2004 while becoming Payton’s fourth defensive coordinator since 2006.

“I have had the opportunity to get to know Sean Payton and his staff a bit better recently and I am excited about joining the team,” Ryan said in a statement provided by the Saints. “I’m ready to get to work on all facets of the game. This is a great opportunity and we’re getting started right away.”

When Payton took over as head coach in 2006, New Orleans had a 4-3 scheme overseen by Gary Gibbs, who was fired after the 2008 season. In 2009, Payton brought in Gregg Williams, whose hybrid scheme used a 4-3 base alignment but switched to a 3-4 in certain situations, usually on passing downs in order to help disguise which player might be blitzing.

Williams left after the 2011 season, and months later was suspended along with Payton, general manager Mickey Loomis and Saints assistant head coach Joe Vitt by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell in connection with the league’s bounty probe.

The NFL said Williams ran the bounty pool and gave him an indefinite suspension. He was reinstated this past week and hired as a top defensive coach by Tennessee.

Williams has long proclaimed himself a disciple of Buddy Ryan, who was the defensive coordinator of the Super Bowl champion Chicago Bears in 1985 and later served as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles and Arizona Cardinals.

Williams often spoke of wanting his defenses to be “nasty” and used mottos like “defenses are respected when they’re feared.”

Now, a little more than a year after letting go of Williams, Payton has brought in the son of Williams’ mentor.

Rob Ryan got his start in the NFL on his father’s Arizona staff in 1994. He later spent three seasons as defensive coordinator at Oklahoma State before returning to the NFL with New England, under Bill Belichick, in 2000.

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The Super Bowl Most Valuable Player is not under contract for next season. Newsome said the sides were “very close” to a deal before the season began, but it was a mutual agreement to stop negotiations until the end of the season.

“I’m coming away today thinking that we can get a deal done,” Newsome said at the “State of the Ravens” season-ending news conference. “We’ve got deals done with Haloti [Ngata], JO [Jonathan Ogden], Ray [Lewis], Ray Rice, Ed Reed, [Terrell] Suggs. I’ve got a very good owner who understands the business and understands the importance of certain positions. So, I’m optimistic.”

If the Ravens can’t get a deal completed before the start of free agency, the team will put the franchise tag on Flacco. The exclusive tag, which would take Flacco off the free-agent market, would take $20 million of cap space this season.

“We’re looking to get a fair deal done with Joe,” Newsome said. “If we’re able to get a deal done, it will allow us to be able to participate more in the market if we so choose. But we understand what the priority is.”
Flacco’s agent, Joe Linta, was asked in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday whether Flacco should be the highest-paid at his position, to which he simply responded, “Yes.”

Flacco, 28, is younger than Peyton Manning (who’s earning $18 million per year) and Drew Brees ($20 million), and now has as many Super Bowl titles as each of them. Linta said those are the numbers that matter.

“When you do a contract of this magnitude, you look at what is the player’s body of work presently,” Linta told CNBC. “And what are the expectations going forward over the next four, five or six years.

“Joe wins on both accounts.”

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Agent Joe Linta, when asked in an interview with CNBC whether Flacco should be the highest-paid quarterback, simply responded, “Yes.”

Flacco, 28, is younger than Peyton Manning ($18 million) and Drew Brees ($20 million), and, as of Sunday, has as many Super Bowl titles as each of them. Linta said those are the numbers that matter.

“When you do a contract of this magnitude, you look at what is the player’s body of work presently,” Linta told CNBC. “And what are the expectations going forward over the next four, five or six years.

“Joe wins on both accounts.”

Flacco passed for 1,140 yards, 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Ravens’ four-game postseason run, which ended Sunday with a 34-31 win against the San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl.

Flacco was selected by the Ravens in the first round of the 2008 draft and this season became the only quarterback to win a playoff game in each of his first five seasons.

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Flacco, the MVP of Super Bowl XLVII, is set to become an unrestricted free agent. His new deal is expected to rival those of Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, whose contracts are among the most lucrative in NFL history for quarterbacks.

Flacco’s agent, Joe Linta, said in an interview with CNBC that Flacco should be the NFL’s highest-paid quarterback.

“I think everybody is going to see what Joe [Flacco] ends up signing for,” Rodgers said Tuesday on his weekly radio show on 540 ESPN. “I’m sure they want to lock him up. He’s a great player — had an incredible run in the playoffs — and I’m sure they want to keep him around. A guy like that, with the postseason success he’s had, you want to keep a guy like that around for a while.”

Also a former Super Bowl MVP, Rodgers is under contract through 2014, having signed a six-year, $65 million contract in October 2008. Rodgers’ base salary next season is $9.25 million, while his 2014 deal is worth $10.5 million. Manning ($18 million base salary) and Brees ($20 million base) also are former Super Bowl MVPs.

Rodgers, who didn’t discuss whether he would give the Packers a hometown discount, understands that the market will dictate his next contract.

“It kind of is what it is, as far as that goes. The team, when they’re ready to talk contract, we’ll get there when we get there,” Rodgers said.

Rodgers also is confident that things will work out with the Packers, saying, “When that time comes, we’ll get a deal done. I’m not worried about that. I think the Packers want to keep me around for a little while longer, and I’d love to be a Packer for life.”

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Past everyone except Eric Dickerson.

Peterson became the seventh player to rush for 2,000 yards in a season, plowing through the Green Bay Packers for a 20-yard gain that put him over the top in the third quarter Sunday. He finished with 199 yards and a touchdown in the 37-34 victory, leaving him nine yards shy of breaking Dickerson’s single-season record.

“Ultimately we got the ‘W’,” Peterson said after carrying the ball a career-high 34 times. “We said during the week, if it happens, it happens. Don’t focus on it.”

Peterson needed 208 yards when the day began to break Dickerson’s record of 2,105 yards set in 1984. His 26-yard run late in the fourth quarter set up Blair Walsh’s winning field goal, a kick that clinched a playoff berth for the Vikings. He’ll have to settle for the second-best total — 2,097 yards — and a trip to Lambeau Field for a playoff rematch next Saturday night.

“I know Eric Dickerson is feeling so good right now,” Peterson said with a chuckle, referencing public comments from Dickerson a few weeks back saying he hoped Peterson didn’t break his record. “But God willing, I’ll get it next year.”

Dickerson exalted in keeping the record but also congratulated Peterson on Twitter.

“AdrianPeterson Just want to say that you are a Great player & if my record had to fall, I would like it to go to a player like you AP. ED,” Dickerson tweeted.

The New Orleans Saints also rewrote the NFL record books Sunday, as Drew Brees became the first player to pass for 5,000 yards in a single season three times. His four TD passes gave him 43 in 2012, and he’s the first player with 40 TD passes in consecutive seasons.

The Saints defense gave up 530 yards, raising their season total to 7,042 to break the old record of 6,793 allowed by the 1981 Baltimore Colts.

It also was a record-setting day for Seattle’s Russell Wilson, who tied Peyton Manning’s NFL record for most touchdown passes by a rookie with 26 after a third-quarter score in a 20-13 win over St. Louis.

Detroit’s Matthew Stafford finished the season with an NFL-record 727 pass attempts, topping Drew Bledsoe’s mark of 691 from 1994. But he fell short of a second consecutive 5,000-yard season, finishing at 4,967.

Houston’s J.J. Watt failed to eclipse Michael Strahan’s NFL sacks record (22 1/2). Watt finished with 20 1/2, while 49ers linebacker Aldon Smith went without a sack for the third straight game, winding up with 19 1/2.

Even without the rushing record, Peterson’s remarkable comeback season now has a magic number to punctuate it.

Peterson came in 102 yards shy of joining O.J. Simpson, Dickerson, Barry Sanders, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis and Chris Johnson in the 2,000-yard club. Peterson is the only one to do it after reconstructive knee surgery, and he did it on the one-year anniversary of his knee surgery.

“He is without question the best running back in our game and truly, in my mind, the MVP of our league,” Vikings coach Leslie Frazier said. “We don’t win this game without Adrian Peterson.”

Sanders also praised Peterson on Twitter.

“I’d like to congratulate @AdrianPeterson on an amazing season, comeback, and career thus far,” Sanders tweeted. “Its nice to welcome you to the 2K club.”

The Vikings punted a few plays after Peterson’s big run, and the crowd gave him a standing ovation when the achievement was announced. Peterson took it all in stride, waving politely, but otherwise not making anything special out of it in a game the Vikings needed to win to make the playoffs. He simply didn’t have time to reflect on the long, arduous path it took for him to get there after tearing the ACL in his left knee.

It was only last December when Peterson crumpled to the turf in Washington, two ligaments torn, leaving many to wonder if his career would ever be the same.

Well, it hasn’t been.

Peterson vowed from the very beginning to return better than ever from an injury that has ended the careers of so many before him. There weren’t many believers, including in his own locker room.

But a combination of uncommon genetics, unshakable determination and a smart rehabilitation plan from Vikings athletic trainer Eric Sugarman had Peterson back in the starting lineup on opening day.

Peterson scored two touchdowns in the opener but didn’t top 100 yards in a game until Week 4 when he went for 102 against the Lions. As the season went on, the scar tissue in his knee started to break up and Peterson took off like a purple rocket.

His cuts are sharper, his vision better and his patience is making the difference between a 4-yard plunge through the line and a 40-yard dash down the sideline.

He went on a breathtaking eight-game run, amassing 1,313 yards and topping 200 yards twice in four games to vault into the MVP discussion and make 2,000 yards a possibility.

When asked this week to describe his running style in one word, Peterson replied: “Vicious.”

That certainly sums it up.

He got off to a fast start with 61 yards and a touchdown on the first two drives, hearing chants of “MVP! MVP!” just before he surged into the end zone for a 7-yard score and a 10-0 Vikings lead. He also had runs of 12 and 21 yards early to get the Vikings going in this win-and-they’re-in game.

“I don’t let awards identify me,” Peterson said. “I don’t do it. I go out and define myself by what I do on the field. Whether I win it or not, and I’m not saying I don’t want to, just like I wanted to break the record, either way, in my heart I’m the MVP. That’s all that matters.”

The Vikings have followed Peterson’s lead in what most observers expected to be a rebuilding year. Peterson has carried the offense on his broad shoulders, turning the Vikings into a throwback attack that relies almost exclusively on the run for its big plays.

“Congrats to (Adrian) Peterson on becoming the 7th member of the 2K club,” Johnson tweeted, “now let’s see who can run down ED.”

With second-year quarterback Christian Ponder going through some highs and lows, and the Vikings missing top receiver Percy Harvin with an ankle injury, the passing offense has ranked last in the league. Peterson is averaging more yards per rush than Ponder does per pass and his seven rushes of 50 yards tied him with Sanders in 1997 for the NFL record.

All the while, Peterson has said he’d take the first postseason berth in three years over 2,000 yards any day. But it was no secret that the individual achievement was important to him.

Unlike baseball, the NFL has few numbers that immediately grab the public’s attention. One of those is 2,000 yards, especially in this new pass-happy league. Peterson entered the game with 1,898 yards, more than 400 better than Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch, who was in second place.

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