Baltimore at New England
When: 6:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 20, 2013
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Line: Patriots -9, O/U 51.5
Prediction: Patriots 27, Ravens 24

Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 7½-point favorites versus the Ravens, while the game’s total is sitting at 51.

Quarterback Joe Flacco raised more than a few eyebrows when he said earlier in the season that not only does he consider himself a top-five quarterback, but he feels he’s “the best.” No one’s laughing now. Flacco has been sensational in the two playoff victories, throwing for 613 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He also saved Baltimore’s season last week by connecting with Jacoby Jones on a 70-yard scoring strike with 31 seconds left to send the game into overtime. Flacco’s the only QB in league history to reach the playoffs in each of his first five seasons and has torched the Patriots for 973 yards with seven TDs vs. two interceptions in the last three games. Ray Rice rushed for 131 yards and a score last week and speedster Torrey Smith had TD receptions of 59 and 32 yards. He burned the Patriots for a pair of scoring passes earlier this season. Lewis has 32 tackles in the playoff games after returning from a 10-game injury absence, but this is not a typical Ravens defense. Last week’s game marked the highest point total ever allowed by Baltimore in the postseason.

In their last action, Baltimore was a 38-35 winner on the road against the Broncos. They covered the 9-point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (73) was profitable news for OVER bettors.

Baltimore: 10-6 SU, 6-9-1 ATS
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 7-3
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 7 games when playing on the road against New England
Baltimore is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore’s last 6 games on the road

New England amassed a league-high 557 points during the regular season and had its sixth 40-point game last week. Gronkowski re-injured his broken forearm early in last week’s victory, depriving Brady of a target that has accounted for 38 touchdowns in his first 43 NFL games. Still, Brady threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns to surpass Joe Montana for the most career postseason victories with 17. Brady had 335 yards and a scoring pass in Week 3, but he’s had his struggles against the Ravens. He was intercepted twice in last season’s AFC title game and failed to throw a TD pass for the first time in 36 games. New England unveiled another weapon on offense last week in running back Shane Vereen, who caught a pair of scoring passes and rushed for another TD while registering 124 total yards. TE Aaron Hernandez did not play in the early-season matchup and will provide a matchup issue for Baltimore’s aging linebacking corps. The midseason acquisition of cornerback Aqib Talib has helped solidify an improving defense that limited five of the final six regular-season opponents to under 20 points.

New England won its last outing, a 41-28 result against the Texans on January 13. The Patriots covered in that game as a 9.5-point favorite, while the 69 combined points took the game OVER the total.

New England: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 6-4
New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 8 games at home
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore

The post Baltimore Ravens vs. New England Patriots Free Betting Pick & Matchup appeared first on IdealCapper.

Houston at New England
When: 4:30 PM ET, Sunday, January 13, 2013
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.
Line: Patriots -10, O/U 47.5

Oddsmakers currently have the Patriots listed as 9½-point favorites versus the Texans, while the game’s total is sitting at 48.

Arian Foster scored the game’s lone touchdown last week and compiled 174 total yards from scrimmage (140 rushing, 34 receiving). Foster’s dual threat was rendered nearly obsolete after the Patriots breezed to an early 21-0 lead. The electric runner was held to 46 yards on the ground. Houston would be wise to feed Foster the ball on Sunday; the Texans are 8-0 when he rushes for at least 100 yards.

Last time out for Houston, they were a 19-13 winner as they battled the Bengals at home. The Texans covered in the match as a 3.5-point favorite, while 32 combined points moved the game UNDER for totals bettors.

Houston: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS
When playing in January are 4-4
When playing on turf are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston’s last 6 games
Houston is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Brady isn’t shy about distributing the ball as he guides the league’s highest-scoring team. Wes Welker, who had 118 catches for 1,354 yards this season, was held to just three receptions in the teams’ earlier meeting. Rob Gronkowski, who was a spectator against the Texans earlier this season, led the Patriots with 11 touchdowns. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez, who had two scores versus Houston, and wideout Brandon Lloyd could be the wild cards in the high-octane attack.

New England won its last outing, a 28-0 result against the Dolphins on December 30. The Patriots covered in that game as a 11.5-point favorite, while the 28 combined points took the game UNDER the total.

New England: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
New England most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
New England is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England’s last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 11 of New England’s last 14 games

Prediction: Patriots 31, Texans 20

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