Minnesota at Green Bay
When: 8:00 PM ET, Saturday, January 5, 2013
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: 8 p.m. ET, NBC.
Line: Packers -9.5. O/U: 46
Oddsmakers currently have the Packers listed as 9½-point favorites versus the Vikings, while the game’s total is sitting at 46.
Prediction: Packers 28, Vikings 24

Minnesota needed to win its final four games of the regular season just to reach the playoffs and knocked off playoff contenders Chicago, Houston and Green Bay in those final weeks. Peterson carried it 34 times for 199 yards in Week 17 and averaged 159.8 yards over the final 10 games of the regular season despite being less than a year removed from major knee surgery. While Peterson’s performance has been consistent, quarterback Christian Ponder’s effort in the finale was more of a surprise. The second-year starter passed for 234 yards and a season-high three touchdowns without an interception for a career-best 120.2 rating. The Vikings have some big questions on defense, as cornerback Antoine Winfield left Sunday’s game with a hand injury and is questionable. Rodgers threw for three scores with Winfield off the field.

Minnesota won its last outing, a 37-34 result against the Packers on December 30. The Vikings covered in that game as a 3-point underdog, while the 71 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Team records:
Minnesota: 10-6 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
Green Bay: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS

Minnesota most recently:
When playing in January are 4-6
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 4-6
When playing within the division are 4-6

Green Bay did not have the same motivation as Minnesota last week, with the Packers’ postseason spot already assured. They could have earned a first-round bye with a victory, but the “win or go home” mentality that will be there this week was not on display in Minneapolis. Rodgers is working with a battered receiving corps with Randall Cobb (ankle) questionable and Jordy Nelson (hamstring) limited. Greg Jennings caught a pair of touchdown passes last week in his best game of the season and could get a lot more attention from the Minnesota secondary on Saturday. Stopping Peterson will be the No. 1 goal for the defense. The MVP candidate shredded Green Bay for 409 yards in two meetings this season.

Green Bay lost its last outing, a 37-34 result against the Vikings on December 30. The Packers failed to cover in that game as a 3-point favorite, while the 71 combined points took the game OVER the total.

Green Bay most recently:
When playing in January are 7-3
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 9-1

A few trends to consider:
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota’s last 10 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota’s last 6 games
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Green Bay is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

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