Toronto vs. Baltimore Odds & Prediction

Toronto and Baltimore begin journeys they hope take them deeper into the playoffs when the Blue Jays visit the Orioles on Monday afternoon in a rematch of last year’s American League wild-card game. Toronto eventually swept Texas 3-0 in an AL Division Series before losing to Cleveland 4-1 in the AL Championship Series and appears to have a rotation deep enough to challenge East favorite Boston for the division title after finishing four games behind the Red Sox last season.

The Blue Jays and Orioles were each 89-73 last season before Toronto prevailed 5-2 in the wild-card game on Edwin Encarnacion’s three-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning. The Blue Jays lost Encarnacion, who averaged 38.6 home runs in his last five seasons with Toronto, via free agency to Cleveland but hope Kendrys Morales can at least replicate the 30 home runs and 93 RBIs he delivered with Kansas City in 2016. The biggest change in the Orioles lineup comes behind the plate as Welington Castillo arrives to replace Matt Wieters, who left for Washington after spending the first eight years of his career with Baltimore. The Orioles’ Kevin Gausman takes the ball in what he hopes to be the first of many Opening Day assignments as he replaces the injured Chris Tillman (right shoulder) and opposes Marco Estrada, who is feeling better after a 2016 marred by back pain that never really went away.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (2016: 9-9, 3.48 ERA) vs. Orioles RH Kevin Gausman (2016: 9-12, 3.61)

Estrada, who also makes his first Opening Day start, comes with more velocity as his fastball is reaching 90 miles per hour thanks to better health. The 33-year-old Mexican posted a 4.76 ERA for the second consecutive spring training, allowing 13 hits and striking out 13 in 17 innings. Estrada is 4-1 with a 3.22 ERA in 10 games (eight starts) versus Baltimore with Manny Machado 2-for-18 with six walks and Castillo recording four home runs in 23 at-bats.

Gausman, the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft, was 8-6 with a 3.10 ERA and 92 strikeouts in 93 innings after the All-Star break last season. The 26-year-old Coloradan is 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA in 12 games (seven starts) versus Toronto while handling Jose Bautista (1-for-13, solo home run, four strikeouts). Gausman posted a 1.98 ERA with 18 strikeouts and six walks in 13 2/3 innings of spring training.

WALK-OFFS

1. The Orioles re-signed DH Mark Trumbo after the 2016 home run champion (career-high 47) tested the free agent market.

2. The Blue Jays boasted an AL-best 3.78 ERA last season with their starters’ 3.64 ERA also tops in the league.

3. The clubs have split their last 76 regular-season meetings with Toronto winning the last two series 10-9 and 11-8.