ncaa football pick Archives - IdealCapper

323 LSU @ 324 Mississippi State

Gary — Sat, 12 Sep 2015 16:53:39 +0000

Mississippi State won its home opener at Southern Miss 34-6 but didn’t cover and was under. May be their QB Dak Prescott just got a slow start but this may be the best he can play.

LSU may be coming in at a disadvantage since their opener with McNeese St was cancelled last week due to lightning. They may not be sure of their QB Anthony Jennings in a game setting but their running game is solid under Les Miles. Miles offenses annually are one of the best 25 in college football.

In the AP poll, LSU is sitting a miserable 15 with Mississippi State barely on the list at 25 – and don’t rank in any of the other big polls. LSU pride won’t let them sit in the middle for long.

The line started at LSU -2 and went as high at -4. Sitting now at -3.5. Doesn’t matter – LSU will cover and win by at least a touchdown.

Score: 21-19

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319 Fresno State @ 320 Ole Miss

Gary — Sat, 12 Sep 2015 16:24:53 +0000

Fresno State didn’t show well at Abilene Christian last week allowing 13 points in a 34-13 win. Ole Miss is the best team they’ll face all year. Since 1992, Fresno State as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points has lost all 9 of those games, going 6-3 ATS.

The Rebels are 11-4-1 ATS out of conference under coach Freeze.

Ole Miss has a new star rising with QB Chad Kelly. His record for junior college was stellar – and last week he sat the second half with a steamroll win 76-3 against Tenn-Martin. It’s going to be a fun game to see how the team gels with Kelly under center. The biggest if in this game – can they stay focused on Fresno instead of looking ahead to Alabama next week?

My answer – Freeze wants to see what Kelly really has before Bama. He’ll play Kelly until they are comfortably ahead 4-5 td’s. Taking Ole Miss -30.5.

Score: 21-73

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355 Iowa at 356 Iowa St

Gary — Fri, 11 Sep 2015 22:32:10 +0000

This game is really being played in the Hawkeye State but just in the rival universe of Cyclone State. To Iowans at Iowa State, this is a huge game.

Both teams are ground game oriented but Iowa State defended the rush better last week (41-126 [3.1]) to Iowa’s (28-35 [2.1]).

Total has dropped and considered the under, but like Iowa State +4.5.

Score 31-17

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371 Arizona at 372 Nevada

Gary — Fri, 11 Sep 2015 22:20:45 +0000

Arizona had an unimpressive game last week posting 4.3 ave yards rushing and 6.4 passing. Defense gave up 32 points at home. But they didn’t have much to play for in the opener.

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Nevada posted better numbers (5.9 rushing/7.1 ave passing) but Cal Davis isn’t the caliber of Arizona.

Like Arizona, -11 and taking the second play for the over 62.

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Score: 44-20

Pick: Arizona -11, Over 62

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(207) Purdue @ (208) Marshall

Gary — Thu, 03 Sep 2015 21:44:47 +0000

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We are Marshall is coming off its best season in years with a 13-1 record. Junior Gunnar Holcombe is taking control as QB with big shoes to fill following Rakeem Cato.

What Darrell Hazell did for Kent State is not repeating at Purdue. In the last 6 years, Purdue has posted only one winning season. With 16 returning starters coming off a 3-9 season, the impossible seems improbable.

But, Holcombe has a spotty line of scrimmage that could take a couple games to gel. Purdue’s ATS numbers all point to about even – 10-12 ATS. And the over/under is actually large at an open of 63.

My factor take is Marshall will win but Purdue needs something to take as a positive. Holding Marshall from a blow out is that positive.

Going under Sunday.
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Score: 31-41

Pick: under 63

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