(STATS) – There’s an obvious favorite in the Southern Conference title race after October, but it’s hardly clear if the team most likely to earn the league’s automatic playoff bid is its best.
It’s even murkier trying to parse who might join Wofford in the 24-team tournament.
The eighth-ranked Terriers are the SoCon’s likeliest champions, currently tied atop the conference standings with No. 23 Furman, which is easily the league’s hottest team after six straight wins.
But Wofford has the head-to-head tiebreaker by virtue of a 24-23 win in Spartanburg way back on Sept. 2 in the season opener for both teams. Furman coughed up a seven-point lead in the fourth quarter by allowing a pair of touchdowns, then Clay Hendrix opted to go for two after Triston Luke’s 44-yard touchdown run seemingly set up the Paladins to send it to overtime.
That narrow escape has become the norm for Wofford, which has played only one game decided by more than a touchdown. There had been a tie or lead change in the final four minutes in each of the Terriers’ SoCon games until last Saturday’s 31-24 win at ETSU – and even in that one, the Buccaneers were driving to tie it late before coming up short.
“We are better than we are showing and that is the frustrating thing,” coach Mike Ayers said. “We have to coach better and put them in a position to be on the money every time.”
With a home game against disappointing Chattanooga and a visit to winless VMI left in conference, it’s hard to imagine the Terriers stumbling. And even if they do, there’s plenty of uncertainty behind them in a league that has five somewhat realistic playoff possibilities aside from Ayers’ team.
Let’s crunch some numbers around the SoCon to get an idea of what each team has to do to find itself in the playoff bracket come Nov. 19 (all stats reflect only games against FCS opponents).
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1. Wofford (7-1, 5-1)
Remaining conference games: Chattanooga, at VMI
Average scoring margin: plus-5.5
Yards per play (YPP) for: 6.04
Yards per play against: 4.93
The skinny: The Terriers don’t have the highest ceiling of the conference contenders and aren’t built to come from behind, but if they get a significant lead, it’s good night and good luck. Win one and they’re in. Despite all the close calls, that shouldn’t be a problem with this schedule.
Playoff chances: 98 percent
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2. Furman (6-3, 5-1)
Remaining conference games: The Citadel, at Samford
Average scoring margin: plus-16.6
YPP for: 6.18
YPP against: 5.26
The skinny: Furman has the best resume in the conference, and it’s not particularly close. The Paladins lost by a combined four points to Wofford and Elon, both of whom are seeded in the latest STATS FCS playoff projections, and also fell to No. 20 North Carolina State when venturing into FBS territory. They’ve beaten Patriot League frontrunner Colgate, handled Mercer and trounced Western Carolina on the road. Furman is off this week and should make its first playoff appearance since 2013 as long as it wins one of its remaining two.
Playoff chances: 80 percent
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3. Western Carolina (6-3, 4-2)
Remaining conference games: at The Citadel, Mercer
Average scoring margin: plus-16.5
YPP for: 6.33
YPP against: 4.91
The skinny: What seemed to be the league’s most dangerous team just a week ago is now in a bit of trouble after a 28-6 loss to Furman. Quarterback Tyrie Adams suffered a lower leg injury in the same game star running back Detrez Newsome returned. Adams is questionable to face The Citadel, and a loss in Charleston would leave the Catamounts likely needing a win over Mercer to make their first playoff appearance since 1983.
Playoff chances: 65 percent
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4. Samford (5-3, 3-2)
Remaining conference games: at Mercer, ETSU, Furman
Average scoring margin: plus-7.0
YPP for: 6.00
YPP against: 5.30
The skinny: Here’s where it starts to get really interesting. Samford snuck into the playoffs as the SoCon’s fourth team last season despite stumbling down the stretch, and coach Chris Hatcher’s team will have to hope last Saturday’s 23-21 loss to Chattanooga – which featured seven Bulldog turnovers – isn’t a precursor to a similar slide. Samford has a nonconference victory over a Kennesaw State team that could win the Big South and beat Wofford on the road, yet it also struggled to beat Division II West Alabama. The Bulldogs feature one of the worst running games in the country but can beat anyone if quarterback Devlin Hodges is rolling. Beating ETSU is a must, and winning one of the other two should put them in.
Playoff chances: 60 percent
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5. Mercer (4-4, 3-3)
Remaining conference games: Samford, at Western Carolina
Average scoring margin: plus-13.6
YPP for: 6.21
YPP against: 4.72
The skinny: Mercer is the darling of our metrics, posting a SoCon-best 1.49 difference in yards per play differential and nearly a two-touchdown margin in its seven FCS games (that doesn’t even include a visit to 16th-ranked Auburn, which was a one-score game deep into the fourth quarter). There’s not one thing the Bears are particularly great at, but redshirt freshman QB Kaelan Riley has been excellent lately, averaging 9.28 yards per attempt with seven TDs and two INTs over his last five games. Mercer’s best win came in early October at The Citadel, but if it can knock off Samford and Western Carolina before a season-ending trip to Alabama, there’s a chance Bobby Lamb’s club could sneak in.
Playoff chances: 25 percent
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6. The Citadel (5-3, 3-3)
Remaining conference games: Western Carolina, at Furman
Average scoring margin: plus-5.1
YPP for: 5.49
YPP against: 5.07
The skinny: “So you’re telling me there’s a chance,” Jim Carrey’s Lloyd Christmas idealistically says to Lauren Holly’s Mary Swanson in “Dumb and Dumber.” Swanson’s “one-in-a-million” response probably isn’t too far off from the reigning conference champs’ hopes of winding up back in the playoffs, but there’s at least a bit of optimism for the Bulldogs after halting a three-game skid with back-to-back wins. They’re 0-3 against Samford, Mercer and Wofford and will need to win their last two, and even that might not be enough with the bubble looking strong. But hey, Carrey and Holly wound up married in real life for nine months, so you never know.
Playoff chances: 5 percent
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