Detroit at Green Bay: NFL Free Pick

The well-rested Green Bay Packers attempt to continue their dominance of the Detroit Lions when the NFC North rivals meet at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, October 6, 2013
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.
LINE: Packers -7. O/U: 53.5
PREDICTION: Packers 31, Lions 27
Current streak: Detroit has won 2 straight games.
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Last time out for Detroit, they were a 40-32 winner as they battled the Bears at home. The Lions covered in the match as a 3-point favorite, while 72 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.

After watching his team end a 21-game road losing streak against Washington in Week 3, Detroit coach Jim Schwartz looks to do the same in Green Bay on Sunday. “Close doesn’t count. We’re not trying to play close games, even though we have,” he said. Each of the Lions’ last three losses to the Packers have been by seven or fewer points. With receivers Nate Burleson (forearm) and Patrick Edwards (ankle) battling injuries, Detroit signed Kevin Ogletree on Wednesday – one day after he was released by Tampa Bay.

Detroit: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Detroit most recently:
When playing in October are 6-4
When playing on grass are 3-7
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 3-7
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit’s last 5 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Detroit’s last 20 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit’s last 6 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games

Last time out for Green Bay, they were a 34-30 loser as they battled the Bengals on the road. The Packers failed to cover in the match as a 3-point favorite, while 64 combined points moved the game OVER for totals bettors.

James Starks and rookie Johnathan Franklin each reached the century mark in rushing yards for Green Bay this season, but the former won’t get the chance to repeat the feat as he is expected to miss several weeks with a sprained knee suffered in the loss to Cincinnati. The Packers’ backfield receives a boost this week, however, as rookie Eddie Lacy returns from a concussion. Safety Morgan Burnett could also be back from his hamstring injury, but linebacker Clay Matthews is questionable with a similar ailment.

Green Bay: 1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS
Green Bay most recently:
When playing in October are 9-1
When playing on grass are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 9-1
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay’s last 7 games

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